October 29, 2025

Good Wednesday evening. In this edition: Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point but signals uncertain path ahead.

• Plus, third term, trade deals, Canada tariffs, Maryland and Virginia redistricting, SNAP, Mamdani and Cuomo.

Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point for the second consecutive meeting, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level in three years.

• The move sets the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%.

The decision comes as Fed officials have only a partial view of the economy due a lack of federal data reporting during the government shutdown.

• Outside of September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — which showed headline inflation at 3% — the government has suspended all data collection and reports, leaving policymakers with a dearth of macroeconomic information.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the lack of official reporting but said the central bank was able to access a "wide variety" of other data from the public and private sectors.

• "The public- and private-sector data that have remained available suggests the outlook for employment and inflation have not changed much since our meeting in September," he told reporters.

Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target while the labor market cools, putting the central bank in "a challenging situation" as it tries to balance its dual mandates of stable prices and maximum employment.

• "There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals," Chair Powell said.
  
  
• "With downside risks to employment having increased in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance."

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote was 10–2, with the two dissents coming for different reasons.

• Stephen Miran, whom President Trump appointed as a Federal Reserve governor last month, dissented for the second straight meeting, favoring a half-point cut.
  
  
• Jeffrey Schmid, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, also dissented, preferring that the Fed not cut rates at all.

Fed officials had previously forecast another quarter-point reduction at the December meeting, but Chair Powell said there were now "strongly differing views" over the path ahead.

• "A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it," he said.

Traders had widely expected another 25-basis-point reduction by the end of the year, and stocks, which initially rose after the rate announcement, turned lower following the chairman's comments.

• Mr. Powell said there is a "growing chorus" among policymakers to "at least wait a cycle" before cutting rates again.
  
  
• Nevertheless, traders still see a roughly 67% chance of a cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower, the Dow shed 0.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished up 0.5%.

Watch the Fed press conference.

In other news…

• President Trump seemed to acknowledge that he is constitutionally ineligible to serve a third term in office after publicly musing about the possibility for months. "Based on what I read, I guess I'm not allowed to run. So, we'll see what happens," he told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to South Korea. The Constitution's 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. "If you read it, it's pretty clear — I'm not allowed to run," the president said. "It's too bad."
  
  

• The U.S. and South Korea finalized the terms of a new trade deal during President Trump's visit to the country. The two sides will reduce reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 15% while Seoul will invest $350 billion in the U.S. and buy $100 billion worth of liquified natural gas. President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this evening, when the leaders hope to finalize a trade deal between the world's two largest economies.
  
  

• The Senate voted 50–46 to terminate the emergency declaration declared by President Trump to impose tariffs on Canada. Four Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (ME), Mitch McConnell (KY), Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Rand Paul (KY) — joined all Democrats in favor. The move comes after senators voted Tuesday to reject the emergency declaration used to impose duties on Brazil. In that 52–48 vote, five Republicans voted to rebuke the president.
  
  

• Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) said he will not move forward with a mid-decade redistricting push in his state, warning the move could have "catastrophic" consequences. "In short, the risk of redrawing the congressional map in Maryland is too high, making the unlikely possibility that we gain a seat not worth pursuing," he wrote in a letter to colleagues. The decision dashes the hopes of Democratic Party leaders to try to oust Rep. Andy Harris, the only Republican in Maryland's eight-member congressional delegation.
  
  

• The Virginia House of Delegates, on the other hand, voted to approve a resolution that would allow mid-decade redistricting in the state. The resolution needs to pass the Senate and then pass both chambers again after the upcoming election before Virginia voters can weigh in through a referendum. There are currently six Democrats and five Republicans in the state's congressional delegation.
  
  

• Congressional leaders continued to blame the other side for the upcoming lapse in SNAP benefits, commonly known as food stamps, as the shutdown stretched into a 29th day. Democrats called on Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to bring a bipartisan bill to the floor that would ensure the benefits continue. Sen. Thune noted Democrats have now voted 13 times against the House-passed CR. "This isn't a political game," he said on the floor. "These are real people's lives we are talking about, and you have all just figured out, 29 days in, that, oh, there may be some consequences?"
  
  

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) continued to withhold his endorsement of Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race. "Look, the bottom line is very simple. I have a good relationship with him, and we're continuing to talk," he told reporters when asked whether he would vote for him on Tuesday. Democratic party leaders have been reluctant to back Mr. Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, following his surprise victory in the Democratic primary in June. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) withheld his endorsement until just before early voting began on Saturday.
  
  

• Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) endorsed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race. "I'm a Democratic Capitalist, not a Democratic Socialist," he said on social media. "I can not back a declared socialist with a thin resume to run the most complex city in America." Polls have shown the race tightening in recent weeks, but Mr. Mamdani still holds about a 10-point lead over the former governor, according to recent surveys.

For your radar…

• Vice President JD Vance and Erika Kirk, the widow of Charlie Kirk, speak Wednesday evening at a Turning Point USA event at the University of Mississippi. Watch LIVE on C-SPAN at 7:15pm ET.
  
  

• President Trump meets Wednesday night with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Watch LIVE on C-SPAN at 10pm ET.
  
  

• Dr. Casey Means, the president's nominee to serve as surgeon general, testifies Thursday at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Health Committee. Watch LIVE on C-SPAN at 11am ET.

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